Forecasting Hurricanes. Not! By Alan Caruba
In late April, AccuWeather.com, led by Joe Bastardi, its chief meteorologist, issued a news release that was, to be kind, pure mush. The early warning forecast for 2008's June to November hurricane season said that conditions like La Nina and a «continued warm water cycle in the Atlantic Basin» held forth the «chance for U.S. landfalling storms.»
The operative word here is «chance» when predicting hurricanes because it is largely a question of gaming odds on how many. What no self-respecting meteorologist, whether in private forecasting or working for the U.S. government's weather service, wants you to know is that their highly sophisticated computer weather models quite simply cannot factor in a whole range of factors, not the least of which is clouds. Yes, clouds.
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