Can Obama Really Win The White Vote? By Steve Sailer
Predicting the winners of Presidential primary campaigns is a mug's game. You can do detailed analyses of name awareness, issues, demographics, and personalities. But eventually momentum or just plain luck take over and sweep one candidate to victory for no particular reason.
For example, John McCain appears to have a lock on the Republican nomination due to flukish good fortune in narrowly winning the winner-take-all states. Political scientist John Sides calculates that if the GOP contests awarded delegates proportionally, as the Democrats tend to do, McCain would have only a seven-delegate lead over Mitt Romney, with Mike Huckabee within striking distance, and Ron Paul having a realistic shot at being a key powerbroker at the Convention.
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